August 30, 2024: Hot today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. (2024)

Aug 30, 2024Beau DodsonDaily ForecastComments Off on August 30, 2024: Hot today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. A small chance of lightning today. Increasing chances tonight into Saturday. A smaller chance Saturday night. Scattered lightning over our southern counties Sunday. I will monitor Tuesday into Wednesday of next week.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? MINIMAL. A few storms today into tomorrow could produce gusty winds.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? YES. This afternoon.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? LOW RISK. This afternoon.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Friday: 5. Medium risk.
Friday night: 3. Low risk.
Saturday: 3. Low risk.
Saturday night: 3. Low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Humidity levels tick upwards today with minimum RH values largely remaining above 40% this afternoon. While a few showers or storms are possible this afternoon through tonight, the best chance for a wetting rain is on Saturday when a cold front makes passage. Sunday through Tuesday largely look dry, but a few showers may linger across our south on Sunday. Decent southwest transport winds and mixing today should result in fair to good smoke dispersion. Poor dispersion on Saturday will give way to improving conditions on Sunday as winds become northerly.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Friday Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 94°
Southeast Missouri ~ 92° to 95°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 93° to 96°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Southern Illinois ~ 92° to 94°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 92° to 95°
Far western Kentucky ~ 93° to 96°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 94° to 96°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 92° to 94°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 93° to 96°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: West southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:45 AM
Moonset: 6:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Saturday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms..
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 86° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: West northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 68°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:49 AM
Moonset: 6:35 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms (mainly far southern counties).
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (south)
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 62° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 64°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 64°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 64°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 62° to 65°
Winds will be from this direction: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 4:53 AM
Moonset: 7:02 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Hot and humid today.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this afternoon into tomorrow.
3. A few remaining showers and storms possible Saturday night.
4. A few showers possible Sunday over our far southern counties.
5. Cooler and drier air pushes into the region late this weekend into next week.
6. A chance of showers next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

Paducah hit 100 degrees yesterday. A new record high. Cape Girardeau hit 102 degrees. Another new record high temperature.

It was hot and felt every bit of it! Humid, as well.

Record breaking temperatures were observed across our region today. Many areas reached 100 degrees. For Cape Girardeau, MO it was the warmest temperature since 2012.

We will have one more hot day. Temperatures today will rise into the 90s with heat index values of 100 to 108 degrees.

We will have a chance of Isolated showers and thunderstorms bubbling up today/this afternoon.

The front has slowed by several hours. Precipitation today (during the day) will likely be isolated. Perhaps mostly confined to our far northern counties and perhaps the Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.

The chance of rain will increase as we move into tonight and especially tomorrow.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated tonight and Saturday. Again, the front slowed down a little bit. At one point the peak chances were going to be today and tonight. Now, it will be tonight and tomorrow.

The cold front will be slow to arrive and slow to exit. As a matter of fact it still looks like it may linger into Saturday night and Sunday.

I do have a few remaining showers in the forecast along the MO/AR and KY/TN border Sunday.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly. I am expecting an average of 0.30″ to 0.60″ of rain. As is usually the case during August, some locations will receive little or no rainfall. Some locations will pick up thunderstorms to more than an inch or two of rain.

Here is the latest NOAA rainfall outlook.

Lightning will be a concern for outdoor activities. If you have sports, camping, fishing, or outdoor plans then keep an eye on the Beau Dodson Weather radars. If thunder roars, head indoors.

The front will sag south of the region Sunday afternoon and night. This will usher in cooler weather. Less humid weather, as well.

Some locations will dip into the 50s early next week. I think we can all be thankful for that!

Here is what the EC model ensembles show for temperatures into next weekend. Notice the coolest weather arrives late next week.

I chose Paducah as a central point. It will be a bit cooler north and slightly warmer far south. But, you get the general idea.

I am monitor the chance of a few showers Tuesday and Wednesday.

The latest drought monitor shows what all of us already know. Drought is spreading across our region.

Double click images to enlarge them.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

FAQs

How many 100000 thunderstorms in the U.S. each year are severe _______________? ›

Of those 100,000 storms, only about 10% are severe. The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one which produces winds of 58 mph or greater, 3/4 inch hail or larger or tornadoes.

Explore More ›

How many thunderstorms are in progress at any one time in the United States enter only a numeric value? ›

How many thunderstorms are there? Worldwide, there are an estimated 16 million thunderstorms each year, and at any given moment, there are roughly 2,000 thunderstorms in progress. There are about 100,000 thunderstorms each year in the U.S. alone.

Keep Reading ›

How far in advance can thunderstorms be predicted? ›

The Short Answer: A seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Learn More ›

Are thunderstorms becoming more frequent? ›

Global warming creates conditions more favorable to severe storms. As the planet warms, severe storms of all kinds are likely to deliver even bigger payloads of rain. The reason: Warmer air holds more moisture, which effectively increases a storm's capacity to carry precipitation.

Discover More Details ›

What US state has the most thunderstorms? ›

No other part of the nation has more thunderstorm activity than Florida. In the western half of the peninsula in a typical year, there are over 80 days with thunder and lightning.

See Details ›

What state has the greatest number of thunderstorm days per year? ›

In particular, Florida takes the trophy for most thunderstorms in the U.S., on average, with parts of Florida experiencing thunderstorms more than 100 days per year, on average.

Know More ›

Which U.S. city has the most thunderstorms? ›

With an annual average of 89 thunderstorms, Fort Myers, Florida, is the thunderstorm capital of the U.S. And that's not some climatic anomaly, either.

What's the longest a thunderstorm can last? ›

Supercells are often isolated from other thunderstorms, and can dominate the local weather up to 32 kilometres (20 mi) away. They tend to last 2–4 hours. A drone photograph of a supercell from Chamberlain, South Dakota on July 18, 2023.

Read On ›

What is the 30 second rule for thunderstorms? ›

When You See Lightning, Count The Time Until You Hear Thunder. If That Is 30 Seconds Or Less, The Thunderstorm Is Close Enough To Be Dangerous – Seek Shelter (if you can't see the lightning, just hearing the thunder is a good back-up rule). Wait 30 Minutes Or More After The Lightning Flash Before Leaving Shelter.

August 30, 2024: Hot today. Shower and thunderstorm chances increasing. (2024)

Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

Weather advice:

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

FAQs

How many 100000 thunderstorms in the U.S. each year are severe _______________? ›

What's the longest a thunderstorm can last? ›

References